Research method · corrected 30 July 2026

How Football Forecasts Should Be Documented

A forecast is auditable only when another reader can see what information existed, how it was transformed and what changed between versions.

Evidence status: legacy numeric claims withdrawn where no retained input table, raw output or version record exists.

What this page can support

The original 26cup pages did not retain the complete evidence needed to support their old simulation counts. This guide now states the standard future forecasts must meet.

Evidence checklist

  1. Source register with access dates and competition scope.
  2. Versioned inputs and code or formula description.
  3. Raw outputs retained before publication.
  4. Calibration checks across prior comparable forecasts.
  5. A frozen public snapshot plus a separate retrospective.

Limit of the archive

This is a publication standard, not proof that the legacy forecast followed it.

A forecast and an official result are different records. The forecast must remain dated and frozen; the result should come from the competition organiser.

Verify the tournament outcome

Use FIFA's official fixtures, results and final standings when you need the authoritative match record.

Open FIFA fixtures and results · Open final standings