Research method · corrected 30 July 2026

26cup Evidence and Forecast Methodology

A model name is not evidence. A publishable forecast needs a reproducible record of the data, transformation, output and limits that existed on publication day.

Evidence status: legacy numeric claims withdrawn where no retained input table, raw output or version record exists.

What this page can support

Legacy 26cup pages did not retain the full evidence packet needed to support their former simulation counts and precise probabilities. Those claims have been withdrawn.

Evidence checklist

  1. Archive source URLs and access dates.
  2. Version the team pool, roster facts and bracket assumptions.
  3. Retain raw outputs before publishing a summary.
  4. Document the target, validation window and calibration method.
  5. Publish a correction log without rewriting the frozen forecast.

Limit of the archive

This methodology is the gate for future work; it is not retroactive proof that old forecasts met the standard.

A forecast and an official result are different records. The forecast must remain dated and frozen; the result should come from the competition organiser.

Verify the tournament outcome

Use FIFA's official fixtures, results and final standings when you need the authoritative match record.

Open FIFA fixtures and results · Open final standings