What this page can support
A defensible winner forecast needs a dated team pool, source list, model specification, raw output and a frozen publication snapshot. Without those records, a percentage is only editorial opinion.
Evidence checklist
- Freeze the eligible team list and inputs before the opening match.
- Record how injuries, squad changes and bracket paths are handled.
- Publish probabilities with calibration history, not a single confident pick.
- Keep the forecast unchanged after results arrive so readers can audit it.
Limit of the archive
26cup does not retain a complete raw run log for the legacy forecast. The old numeric rankings were therefore removed rather than relabelled as verified analysis.
A forecast and an official result are different records. The forecast must remain dated and frozen; the result should come from the competition organiser.
Verify the tournament outcome
Use FIFA's official fixtures, results and final standings when you need the authoritative match record.