Browse the archive
- 2026 World Cup Winner Forecast ArchiveA transparent archive note for the pre-tournament winner forecast, with evidence requirements, limits and links to the official final record.
- 2026 World Cup Knockout Forecast ArchiveAn evidence-led archive of the knockout forecast concept, separating a pre-event bracket from the official tournament result.
- 2026 World Cup Dark-Horse Forecast ArchiveA historical dark-horse forecast note explaining what evidence an underdog case needs and why unsupported ratings were removed.
- 2026 World Cup Final Forecast ArchiveThe final-match forecast preserved as an editorial archive, with the pre-event and official-result boundary made explicit.
- How Football Forecasts Should Be DocumentedA practical evidence standard for football forecasts: sources, timestamps, model definition, raw output, calibration and limits.
- Football Prediction Math: A Plain-Language GuideUnderstand ratings, probabilities, calibration and uncertainty without mistaking an illustrative formula for a verified tournament model.
- How to Evaluate a World Cup Dark-Horse CaseA decision framework for underdog analysis using baseline expectations, path, squad evidence and uncertainty.
- Golden Boot Forecasting: Inputs That MatterA transparent checklist for scorer forecasts: minutes, role, penalties, opponent path, team progression and source dates.
- Knockout Match Analysis Without False PrecisionA framework for knockout analysis covering regulation, extra time, penalties, match state and evidence limits.
- World Cup Group-stage Preview ChecklistA source-led checklist for previewing a World Cup group without inventing live ratings, standings or qualification certainty.