What this page can support
A model description should name the target, input window, weighting, validation period and treatment of draws, extra time and penalties.
Evidence checklist
- Define exactly what the probability predicts.
- Use out-of-sample matches for validation.
- Check whether stated probabilities are calibrated.
- Publish uncertainty and known blind spots.
- Label worked examples as illustrative.
Limit of the archive
No numeric example on this page is represented as a retained 26cup tournament run.
A forecast and an official result are different records. The forecast must remain dated and frozen; the result should come from the competition organiser.
Verify the tournament outcome
Use FIFA's official fixtures, results and final standings when you need the authoritative match record.